Bellator Fight Odds
Bellator rolled out some big news last week, including an unveiling of its latest grand prix, which will feature an 8-man showdown at light heavyweight.
The bracket contains notable names and wildcards alike, as well as a running theme of rematches when factoring in the history at hand. In this article, I’ll take look at each participant and his projected odds to win it all, per BetOnline.ag, parsing out whether or not I agree with the probabilities listed (as well as warn you about potential spoilers).
Latest betting odds and lines for this weekends UFC fights, MMA Matches and Boxing cards.
- Opening Odds; Closing Odds; Top 10 UFC Upsets; Top 15 MMA Upsets; Latest News. MMAOB Daily With Adam Martin; Fight Morning Card Breakdown With Mike; Odds and Ends; Fight Announcements; Injuries; Rumors; Articles. Betting Preview; Fightnomics Statistics; Scouting Reports; Fighter Grades; Fighter Rankings; Fight Results; Boxing; Other.
- Upcoming Bellator MMA (Bellator) events. Find upcoming Bellator odds, fight cards and event information.
Bellator Fight Odds
Without further ado…
Live comparison odds on MMA, UFC, Bellator and boxing events. BigOnSports.com compares fight odds from the top sports betting sites updated every minute. Get the opening lines for money line and round totals (over/under). Track line movements on every fight from the time the odds are initially posted, right up until the event goes off the board. Bellator 254 odds and favorites Juliana Velasquez vs Ilimea-Lei Macfarlane Velasquez comes in as a slight favorite at -145 odds, with underdog Macfarlane at +120. New to the world sports betting?.
Ryan Bader
Record: 27-6-1 MMA, 5-1-1 BMMA
Quarterfinal matchup: Lyoto Machida
Projected odds: -500 against Machida, 11/2 to win tournament
Analysis: Despiting getting cleanly knocked out by Lyoto Machida in their first meeting at UFC on Fox 4, Ryan Bader now finds himself as a 5-1 favorite in a rematch that is set for Bellator 256 on April 9.
Between their first fight taking place almost 10 years ago to the fact that Machida is now in his 40s, I can understand the case for the oddsmakers opening Bader as such a large favorite. However, as the second-highest favorite to win the tournament outright at 11/2 odds, Bader will have some big shoes to fill if he means to regain the light heavyweight title he lost to Vadim Nemkov last year.
Although I favored Bader to win the heavyweight grand prix from its outset, I suspect his road will be a bit more treacherous given the potential “trap fights” at hand.
Lyoto Machida
Record: 26-10 MMA, 2-2 BMMA
Quarterfinal matchup: Ryan Bader
Projected odds: +325 against Bader, 30/1 to win tournament
Analysis: Not only does Lyoto Machida find himself on the wrong side of the betting line against Ryan Bader, but the former UFC champion has also been installed as the biggest underdog to win the grand prix outright at 30/1 odds.
In Machida’s defense, he has looked physically revived since moving on from the UFC and only lost by split decision under the Bellator banner. But with Machida officially standing at 0-3 in rematches (opposite to Bader’s 2-0), then it’s not exactly hard to see why the 42-year-old drew the short straw in regards to projections.
Machida will need some serious opportunism on his side if he means to find any success in the bracket, as I suspect that Bader fights smart and conservative coming off a loss.
Corey Anderson
Record: 14-5 MMA, 1-0 BMMA
Quarterfinal matchup: Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov
Projected odds: +120 against Yagshimuradov, 10/1 to win tournament
Analysis: Despite being given the same odds to win the tournament outright at 10/1, Corey Anderson was opened as a slight underdog to promotional newcomer Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov. However, since this line was released, the public has quickly bet up the more familiar name in Anderson, who now finds himself in the neighborhood of a -160 favorite.
Although this sort of movement is a bit predictable, I do warn anyone overlooking Anderon’s opposition in this spot. Despite the American’s solid skill set and work ethic earning my respect, Anderson’s durability still remains to be questioned given the common thread it plays in his defeats.
I initially came in leaning toward Anderson as a potential dark horse for his side of the bracket, but then I looked at his opponent …
Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov
Record: 18-5-1 MMA, 0-0 BMMA
Quarterfinal matchup: Corey Anderson
Projected odds: -150 against Anderson, 10/1 to win tournament
Analysis: Although I was admittedly the least familiar with Dovletdzhan Yagshirmuradov, I am familiar with the organization he comes from, ACA (Absolute Championship Akhmat).
Formerly branded as ACB (Absolute Championship Berkut), the Russian promotion has long been cultivating talents that are more than capable of competing on the big stages. In recent years, Yagshirmuradov has made his way up the ranks with an eight-fight winning streak that saw him both capture and defend a light heavyweight title.
Yagshimuradov is certainly a smaller light heavyweight at 5-foot-11, but he appears to have the wrestling and well rounded skills needed to stay competitive at this weight class. Coupled with Yagshimuradov’s fast hands and explosive striking skills, the native of Turkmenistan makes for a solid sleeper at 205 pounds.
I couldn’t find much in regards to Yagshimuradov’s prior MMA accolades, but the 31-year-old seems to be well versed in both sambo and wushu sanda, as he’s trained with plenty of notable camps in and out of his region. Either way, do not be surprised to see Yagshimuradov end up winning his side of the bracket considering the lethal counters he keeps in his back pocket.
Vadim Nemkov
Bellator Mma Fight Odds
Record: 12-2 MMA, 5-0 BMMA
Quarterfinal matchup: Phil Davis
Projected odds: -350 against Davis, 9/5 to win tournament
Analysis: Considering I’ve been calling Vadim Nemkov a dark horse since early 2018, I can’t say that I’m shocked to see him as both the Bellator light heavyweight champion and the biggest favorite to win the grand prix at 9/5 odds.
The 28-year-old champion will first need to conquer the first rematch of his career when he meets Phil Davis in the first round of the tournament. Nemkov was able to squeak out a split decision over Davis back at Bellator 209, as that fight showed potential pathways that future opposition may try and exploit.
Nevertheless, Nemkov is coming off a successful camp preparing for wrestling threats, as I suspect the sambo champion will be ready for whatever his side of the bracket throws at him.
Phil Davis
Record: 22-5-1 MMA, 9-2 BMMA
Quarterfinal matchup: Vadim Nemkov
Projected odds: +275 against Nemkov, 16/1 to win tournament
Analysis: Despite having one of the more proven sample sizes in Bellator and only losing to current or former champs by split decision, Phil Davis finds himself sitting as the second biggest underdog to win this tournament.
Davis, who was initially a 3-1 favorite when he first fought Nemkov, now sits on the opposite end of the equation coming into the first round of the grand prix. Davis, who is officially 3-1 in rematches, is definitely a live dog in this spot.
That said, it’s ultimately hard to rely on Davis to wrestle, as he can be one of the more frustrating fighters to root for. I believe that Davis could be the “Khabib” of this light heavyweight division if he had a different stylistic attitude (as the skills are clearly there). But I digress.
Even if Davis manages to upset Nemkov in the first round, I’m not sure I like what’s waiting for him in the remainder of his bracket.
Anthony Johnson
Record: 22-6 MMA, 0-0 BMMA
Quarterfinal matchup: Yoel Romero
Projected odds: +120 against Romero, 7/1 to win tournament
Analysis: A fighter who already holds wins over two former champions within the tournament, Anthony Johnson comes in at a respectable 7/1 odds to win the grand prix outright.
However, against his first assignment opposite Yoel Romero, Johnson finds himself as a slight underdog. Since those initial odds open, the public has seemingly swooped in on Johnson at plus money, as the matchup is now almost dead even at most books.
Considering that I, too, questioned the early odds in my early breakdown of this matchup, this line movement doesn’t surprise me in the least. Even though Johnson is only 3-2 against career southpaws, the man has only been stopped by strikes via injury, as Romero’s traditional lack of grappling threats will inherently keep “Rumble” live in this spot.
That said, Johnson’s inactivity cannot be ignored. Not only has Romero been the much more active party, but he also carries a high potential to come in reinvigorated at 205 pounds.
Yoel Romero
(Sylvester Sylvanie, USA TODAY Sports)
Record: 13-5 MMA, 0-0 BMMA
Quarterfinal matchup: Anthony Johnson
Projected odds: -150 against Johnson, 4/1 to win tournament
Analysis: Even though Yoel Romero has technically lost four of his last five fights, the Cuban standout is getting plenty of respect from the oddsmakers, who set him as the third most likely to win the grand prix.
The public might be backing Johnson at the moment but make no mistake about it: Romero is always live in fights.
Even at 43 years of age, Romero remains one of the most dangerous fighters on any roster, scoring 8 knockdowns in his last 9 fights. Although Johnson has traditionally held up well to strikes, Romero carries a unique ability to draw out frustrating stretches and stalemates with his feints and looming counters.
So, with that in mind, I would be careful counting Romero out of any of the potential matchups that this grand prix will provide him.